News

Editorial note by Daniel Turriani, Editor in Chief

As the autumn art-season descends upon us, the frenetic overlap of major fairs, institutional announcements, and marquee auction sales underscores both the resilience and the fragility of today’s fine-art market. This week — from 13 to 19 October 2025 — we saw key moments that reflect deeper structural shifts: galleries rethinking their fair strategy, museums securing major capital injections, and auction houses posting strong headline numbers even as underlying caution remains. In what follows, I offer our comprehensive weekly analysis: major news, auction results, exhibition highlights, and curiosities from the field. My own conviction is that while headline performance may look reassuring in places, the next twelve months will demand greater selectivity, institutional agility and global diversification than ever before.

1. Market News & Institutional Developments

a) Frieze London-Art Basel Paris “Barbenheimer” moment?

The CEO of Frieze, Simon Fox, has characterised the tandem scheduling of Frieze London (15 Oct) and Art Basel Paris (24–26 Oct) as a “Barbenheimer moment” for collectors—i.e., two block-buster events side by side that might mutually enhance attendance rather than cannibalise each other. 

From my perspective this is a deft reframing of what many galleries internally regard as a zero-sum competition. The art-fair circuit is under pressure: the 2024 global market fell some 12% according to Art Basel/UBS, and U.K. gallery profits reportedly dropped about 90% for some major players. 

Yet Fox’s argument is that by aligning fairs in London and Paris, collectors can more easily make a trip across markets, reducing friction. He claims that it isn’t a fight between London and Paris, but a coordinated opportunity.

But: the caveat is real. Some galleries are already opting out of London (or reducing their U.K. presence) to focus on Paris. That indicates that despite a positive spin, power is shifting—perhaps subtly—towards the Paris–European node. For collecting advisors and institutional clients alike, the risk is that London loses marginal exhibitors, narrowing its ecosystem and reducing the “discovery” function that Frieze thrives on.

In short: a savvy gambit by Frieze, but one that flags underlying fragility: when gallery profits drop 90%, even a clever scheduling strategy cannot hide structural headwinds.

b) The Courtauld Institute and Gallery Institute in London has secured a £30 million donation from the Reuben Foundation — the largest single gift in the institution’s history since its founding in 1932.  

This sits within a broader trend of major private philanthropy stepping in amid tightened public budgets. The funds will help redevelop its Somerset House space, bring back staff and students by around 2029, and expand its contemporary-art exhibition capacity beyond its usual medieval-to-post-Impressionist remit.

My commentary: This is important on several levels. First, it signals that major donors are now willing to back contemporary-art capacity within institutions historically anchored in older-art legacies. Second, it suggests that the bifurcation between “museum for survey of old masters” and “museum for contemporary cutting-edge” is eroding. Third, for the market this means that institutional backing of contemporary practices is gaining renewed legitimacy—collectors who are risk-averse may find comfort in works associated with museums undergoing expansion.

But a word of caution: large donations often come with naming rights or donor influence, which may shift curatorial independence. For collectors tracking institutional endorsements, one must ask whether the art direction remains curatorially led or donor-influenced.

c) Gerhard Richter retrospective at the Fondation Louis Vuitton

A major retrospective of Richter—the 93-year-old German master—is on view at the Fondation Louis Vuitton in Paris. The show spans 271 works, the most comprehensive ever, tracing his practice from the 1960s onward. Importantly, it includes the “Birkenau” series for the first time in Paris. 

From an expert standpoint: this exhibition matters for both the historical and the market narratives. Historically, Richter occupies a unique position bridging German post-war art, abstraction and conceptualism. Market-wise, his continued institutional affirmation at this scale suggests that his secondary-market presence and interest from major collections remains healthy even in a cautious climate.

For collectors, this reinforces the case for Richter as a “safe” blue-chip–style investment (though one must always bear in mind the softness in lots above the very top tier). For institutions, it underscores that even narrative-heavy survey shows still attract audiences and attention.

One caveat: the scale (271 works, four floors) may obscure the rarer, top-tier works vs. the mid-career material—collectors should be mindful of the “top rake” vs. mid-range pricing dynamics.

d) 1‑54 Contemporary African Art Fair – London edition

From 16–19 October 2025, 1-54 takes place in London at Somerset House, bringing ~100 artists across ~50 galleries focusing on contemporary African and diaspora art. The fair does more than just inclusion; its founder, Touria El Glaoui, emphasises that the event is shifting the agenda “so that Africa is no longer on the periphery”. 

Commentary: This fair is a bellwether. The mainstream (Western-centric) art market increasingly recognises the need to diversify not just by media or nationality, but by geography of production and collecting. For collectors, that suggests the possibility of emerging growth environments outside the traditional U.S./European orbit. For galleries and institutions, the fair suggests the infrastructure for African-diaspora art is now at a mature enough level to demand serious attention.

My note of caution: Growth markets often carry higher risk (liquidity, provenance, resale history). But the upside is significant; early positioning in the right artists may yield asymmetric returns. Collectors willing to engage deeply (rather than simply chase “exotic” labels) may find meaningful opportunities.

2. Auction Highlights

i) Christie’s London – 20th/21st Century Evening Sale (£106.9 m)

In London, Christie’s achieved a remarkable result: their 20th/21st-century evening sale realised £106,925,400 (≈ US$142.85 m / €122.75 m), up ~30 % on the previous year. The sell-through by value was 90 % and by lot 92 %. 

My reading: In a down market, a 30% increase year-on-year is striking. It suggests that while the broader market is cautious, buyers for marquee works with strong provenance and blue-chip names remain active. The high sell-through indicates demand still exists for properly curated and timed auctions.

A key risk remains: whether this is a one-off “good moment” or indicative of a sustained rebound. Given macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, one must interpret this as a positive signal—but not yet a full market recovery.

ii) Sotheby’s London – Contemporary Evening Sale (£47.6 m / US$63.3 m)

The contemporary evening sale at Sotheby’s (London) realised £47.6 m (~US$63.3 m), representing a roughly +£10 m increase from last year’s sale on a roughly comparable number of lots. 

My commentary: Religious adherence to “blue-chip contemporary” seems to still reward. What is notable is the reported mood: one Sotheby’s insider said that more American bidders were present than anticipated, and the fair-week mood “felt really good.” 

However: we must still note that estimates were lower, and premium lots remain scarce. The headline number is healthy, but beneath the surface the market remains selective and cautious. The challenge for mid-tier contemporary artists and galleries remains acute.

iii) Headline lot: Peter Doig, Ski Jacket(1994)

At Christie’s, Peter Doig’s Ski Jacket (1994) hammered for £14.2 m (well above its £6–8 m estimate) after a protracted four-minute (14-minute in reporting) bidding war between Christie’s Asia and a buyer in the room.  

From a specialist view: Doig remains one of the few “market safe bets” among cutting-edge living painters whose work has achieved breadth of exhibition and provenance. That this lot doubled (or more) its estimate signals strong confidence for his upper-end pieces. That said, one must also recognise that this kind of bidding spectacle tends to concentrate at the summit—less so further down the scale.

For collectors facing budget constraints, the lesson is: focus on artists with established rare-work benchmarks rather than speculative emergents (at least for now).

3. Exhibitions & Other Curiosities

a) Magdalene in Ecstasy by Michelangelo Merisi da Caravaggio in Mumbai

In a remarkable moment for global cultural exchange, Caravaggio’s long-lost Baroque masterpiece Magdalene in Ecstasy (c.1606) has arrived in Mumbai for the exhibition L’invenzione della luce (16 Oct–2 Nov 2025) at the Dr Bhau Daji Lad Museum. 

Expert commentary: The import of Caravaggio to India is deeply symbolic: it not only extends his material reach into new geographies, but also aligns with India’s cultural-diplomatic ambitions. The curators pair it with Indian-master M.V. Dhurandhar’s mythological canvases—a dynamic juxtaposition of Western chiaroscuro and Indian devotional visualization.

From the collector/institution lens, this signals a shift: Asia (and India in particular) is becoming an active locus not just of production but of display of the Western canon. For Western institutions, it raises questions on access, loan pipelines and narrative-control. For Asian collectors, it underscores an educative moment: major art doesn’t only travel West → East; increasingly East plays host.

b) Exhibition Guide – United Kingdom

A recent guide lists the UK’s top exhibitions for October 2025: highlights include Millet’s The Angelus at the National Gallery, conceptual fabric-based work by Do Ho Suh at Tate Modern, an Indigenous Sámi show at Tate Modern, and a retrospective of Liliane Lijn. 

Commentary: What stands out is the thematic breadth: from 19th-century realism (Millet) to spatial-installation immigration (Do Ho Suh) to Indigenous art from the Arctic. For institutions, this signals a curatorial pivot toward global and identity-aware narratives. For the market, collectors may take note of lesser-seen names within these shows, anticipating that institutional attention may translate into increased market interest.

4. Deal Flow & Emerging Signals

• The contrasting performance of Christie’s and Sotheby’s suggests that top-tier works continue to attract serious buyers, even under market pressure.
• The institutional donation to The Courtauld and the exhibition of Caravaggio in Mumbai highlight the continuing significance of museum/loan/institutional endorsements as a signal for market confidence.
• The rise of fairs like 1-54 in London demonstrates that globalisation of art—both in terms of geography of creation and collection—is accelerating; savvy collectors may benefit by shifting attention beyond the U.S./Western-Europe axis.
• The metaphor of the “Barbenheimer moment” (Frieze + Art Basel Paris) underscores a new paradigm: temporal clustering of major events to concentrate collector attention. Galleries and institutions need to coordinate carefully; being overshadowed by the megafairs remains a risk.

5. Outlook & Strategy Recommendations

From my vantage point as an art-market strategist, here are distilled take-aways for the coming months:

1. Focus on the upper-end and signature works, especially by artists with strong institutional footprints and exhibition history. The auction results show that liquidity remains for such works.

2. Be cautious in the mid-market and emerging segments. While growth potential exists (particularly via non-Western markets), risk is greater and upside less certain than in previous boom phases.

3. Diversify geographically and narratively. Consider leveraging markets such as Africa, India, Southeast Asia, where institutional infrastructure is improving and attention is growing (as the 1-54 fair and Caravaggio show in Mumbai suggest).

4. Pay attention to institutional signals. Major museum exhibitions, philanthropic donations, and high-profile loans continue to drive collector interest and secondary-market confidence.

5. Consider fair-week timing and strategy. With major fairs overlapping, both galleries and collectors must optimise logistics and presence—being in the wrong place at the wrong time may mean missing synergies or being drowned out by larger events.

Stay tuned for next week’s art analysis, where I’ll continue to unpack the evolving dynamics of the global art market — from the major sales and institutional shifts to the subtler currents shaping artists’ visibility and collectors’ strategies.

Each week brings new signals, surprises, and insights — and I’ll be here to connect the dots between them.

Follow for updates and deeper reflections on the art world’s most defining moments.

Daniel Turriani